Nearly four years on from Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainians are understandably weary of war. The brutal Russian onslaught, the drone and missile attacks, men, women and children killed and maimed, the power and water outages, and the slow, relentless advance of Russia’s forces in the east. It has all taken a heavy toll. The optimism of the first year, when Ukrainian forces rolled back Russia’s armies and liberated swathes of territory, has faded. Hopes for victory on the battlefield no longer seem credible.
Especially wounding is the betrayal by Donald Trump’s America. The fears a year ago about what a Trump presidency would mean for US support for Ukraine have been far exceeded by the reality. As they defend their country, facing Russian missile attacks night after night, Ukrainians have been subjected to the grotesque spectacle of Trump humiliating their president, blaming Ukraine for the outbreak of the war, and giving the red-carpet treatment to Putin. Trump has tried to exploit Ukrainians’ sufferings as an opportunity to extort access to the country’s mineral wealth. Meanwhile, Ukrainian leaders have had to bite their lips and abase themselves before the unscrupulous US president. US funding for Ukraine has been cut off, and Trump has seemed more interested in extracting economic advantages for himself and his family from his special relationship with the war criminal Putin.
There seems little prospect of Trump’s peace efforts bearing fruit. Unwilling to put pressure on Putin, the US president has instead repeatedly piled the pressure on Ukraine to make concessions. In the notorious meeting in the Oval Office in February, Trump claimed that President Zelensky did not hold any cards. A remarkably disingenuous assertion, given that Trump himself was intent on taking away the cards that Zelensky held. Yet despite Trump’s efforts to bully the Ukrainian president into submission, as 2025 draws to a close, it appears that Ukraine in fact has more cards than Trump had realised.
Crucially, Europe, along with Canada, has stood firm in its support for Ukraine, finding a way to ensure that the country’s budget will continue to be funded for at least the next two years. Secondly, Ukraine has massively stepped up its own armaments production, including of its own long-range weapons capable of hitting targets deep inside Russia with no need for permission from anyone. And Russia is facing its own problems. The economic toll of the war is increasingly weighing on the country. Wars do not always end due to decisive victories on the battlefield. Sometimes they end because one or both sides are economically and socially exhausted. Ukraine cannot count on an economic or political crisis in Russia bringing a halt to the aggression. But the longer the war goes on, with the sustained pain it is causing Russia, neither can such an outcome be ruled out.
Despite much bluster from the Kremlin, and exaggerated claims of advances and breakthroughs, Russia’s battlefield progress remains glacially slow and costly in terms of Russian lives. And in some sectors, such as Kupyansk in the north and around Pokrovsk, Ukrainian forces have launched successful local counter-attacks, regaining territory. Russia is not winning this war. If Zelensky, bolstered by the support of his European allies, can stand firm in the face of Trump’s bullying, a much better outcome could still be possible.
Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials frequently say that they trust in the armed forces of Ukraine. That is a good maxim. Ukraine’s defenders have far exceeded all expectations. The greater question is whether Ukrainian society has the stomach to continue the fight. I am not Ukrainian, and, while I spend much time in the country, I do not have to face the horror and heartache of losing loved ones. I only have to endure the frequent air raid warnings for relatively short periods. No one other than Ukrainians themselves can say whether they are ready to persevere in face of Russia’s ongoing aggression. The Ukrainian armed forces have faced severe manpower problems this past year. And Ukrainian society shows marked reluctance to accept its young men being drafted into the army. Yet Ukrainians overwhelmingly say they reject submission to Putin’s demands.
With Europe’s support and with the bravery and skill of its armed forces, Ukraine can out-fight the Russian aggressor. Russia is experiencing ever grater strain, not least from Ukraine’s long-range strikes against its energy infrastructure that have been significantly stepped up in the past few months. Ukrainians have the means. They have surprised the world before. If they have the will, they may yet prevail.
