Another election passes in Montenegro, and again
things carry on much as before. The key political arena in Montenegro is not
elections. That is not where interesting things happen. On the contrary, the
result is always, has always been for the past 20 years, essentially the same.
The Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and its allies win. Milo Djukanović
remains in power, whether as president, as prime minister or, as in the past
couple of years, from behind the scenes as DPS leader. No. The interest in
politics in Montenegro is in the power struggles within the ruling coalition, such
as the long tussle between Djukanović and his long-time key ally, Svetozar
Marović over the former’s determination to advance his young protégé, Igor
Lukšić, to the premiership. It is also in the scandals that emerge about
alleged corruption involving the ruling circles, such as the charge that the
government has illegally favoured Prva banka, which is controlled by the
Djukanović family.
Elections are not interesting because the opposition
never manages to present a credible challenge to the DPS. It harps on about
corruption and organised crime, and about the lack of an independent judiciary.
And few people doubt there is much truth in these accusations. But it does not
make any difference. DPS voters turn out time after time. This time they and their
allies did not manage to win an outright majority, but they will reach
agreement with smaller parties and form the government nonetheless.
So what is wrong with the opposition in Montenegro?
How does Djukanović manage to stay so dominant for so long? This time the great
hope was supposed to be Miodrag Lekić, a former Montenegrin foreign minister,
Yugoslav ambassador to Italy and ally of Slobodan Miloševic. And was it not
predictable that Djukanović and his allies would scorn Lekić for his loyalty to
Milošević? Was it not obvious that Lekić would present an easy target for those
who portray the opposition as pro-Serb, opposed to independence, and disloyal
to Montenegro?
Nebojša Medojević, leader of the Movement for Change
(PzP), part of the two–party Democratic Front (DF) coalition fronted by Lekić,
was surely correct in his analysis when the PzP was formed that the only hope
for opponents of Djukanović after the country’s independence in 2006 was to set
aside divisions and appeal to opponents of the DPS among supporters and
opponents of independence. But the issue has remained critical in defining
politics. By throwing in its lot with the New Serbian Democracy (NOVA), the PzP
has put off many pro-independence voters. As a party tied to the population that
identifies itself as Serb, NOVA is essentially a minority party. In an
environment in which identification with independent Montenegro is still
crucial, it is hard to see how an alliance including NOVA can appeal to many
among the pro-independence majority. Neither can they be expected to win much
support among the Bosniac, Albanian and Croat minorities, almost all of whose
members supported independence from Serbia.
What of other parties? The Socialist People’s Party
(SNP), founded by opponents in the DPS of Djukanović’s break with Milošević in
the late 1990s, has never been an out-and-out Serb party like NOVA. Although it
also opposed independence, it has made some efforts to put that issue behind it
and present itself as a modern centre-left party. But its background remains a
handicap, and it has never managed to persuade most voters of its competence to
run the country. Despite losing out to the DF in the recent elections, perhaps
it could bounce back. But even in that case, some suspect it might eventually be
tempted into an alliance with the DPS. Perhaps the new Positive Montenegro
(PCG) party, which picked up a few seats in these elections, might have a
chance to fulfil the earlier ambition of Medojević, to play down the
independence question and appeal to voters on all sides.
But for the moment, a substantial minority of the
electorate remains devoted to its Serb identity and supports NOVA and other
pro-Serb parties. As long as this division between pro- and anti-independence
parties remains, the DPS has an easy ride. In order to challenge Djukanović,
parties whose acceptance of independence is not in doubt need to establish a
distinct identity, not tied to the pro-Serb opposition, but concentrating on
presenting a credible alternative to DPS rule.
It is something like what the PzP initially aimed to
do, although Medojević’s intense personal antipathy to Djukanović too often clouded
his judgement. The obsession of most opposition parties, as well as
civil-society opponents of the regime, with corruption allegations has
persistently failed to win over most DPS supporters. After so many elections
focusing on that one issue, it is time to recognise that, on its own, it is not
going to win over loyal DPS voters. A successful opposition party will have to
persuade voters it can run the country, that it has credible policies on the
economy, health, education etc. This is a challenge, because the DPS-led
coalition has many achievements to its name, notably in advancing the country’s
EU ambitions. Tackling corruption and establishing an independent judiciary are
vital, but those issues alone do not seem to be sufficient to persuade enough
voters to ditch the DPS.
So what is the likelihood of the emergence of an
opposition capable of seriously challenging the DPS? So long as the pro-Serb
parties remain major players on the opposition scene, the DPS will probably
manage to bat them aside as easily as it has up until now. The continued
divisiveness of the independence issue is a gift to the DPS. This problem in
Montenegro is peculiar among ex-Yugoslav states. No significant political
factor in Croatia, Slovenia, Macedonia or Kosovo opposes independence (leaving
aside dysfunctional Bosnia, which has yet to throw off international tutelage).
But as long as the opposition in Montenegro is identified by the
pro-independence majority with lack of commitment to the Montenegrin state, it
is hard to see how they will be persuaded to vote out the party and the leader,
Djukanović, that brought them their independent state.