From Balkan Insight, 2 January 2011
http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/europe-must-stay-the-course-in-north-kosovo
Europe Must Stay the Course in North Kosovo
The recent past shows EU pressure on Belgrade can
deliver results in northern Kosovo. The question is whether Europe has the will
to keep it up.
By Peter Palmer
Among the recent WikiLeaks disclosures, cables from
Belgrade and Prishtina confirmed the unease US diplomats felt about the support
of officials in Belgrade for the partition of Kosovo.
Frustration with the lack of progress in integrating
the mainly Serb-inhabited north has led some international commentators to
advocate Kosovo’s partition, perhaps as part of a mutually agreed territorial
swap with Serbia’s Albanian-inhabited Presevo valley going to Kosovo in
exchange.
But what are the prospects for such a solution, and is
it necessary, or desirable?
Partition or territorial exchanges are not publicly
stated policy in either Belgrade or Prishtina. When Serbia’s President, Boris Tadic,
raised partition as a possible solution in September 2008, he faced
condemnation in both capitals, leading him to reaffirm the official Serbian
line that the whole of Kosovo remains part of Serbia.
Nevertheless, as the WikiLeaks documents show, some
Serbian officials are interested in partition. While acknowledging that most of
Kosovo is lost, they assert that the government in Prishtina will never rule
the north.
Could Prishtina be persuaded to accept such a loss of
territory? The answer would seem to be “no”, unless Kosovo were offered
something in return. It is here that the idea of a territorial exchange comes
into play. While it is certainly not official Kosovo policy, some officials in
Prishtina are prepared to entertain the idea.
However, when considering a territorial exchange,
problems of principle and practicality present themselves. International
acceptance of the break-up of Yugoslavia has since 1991 been based on two
principles, affirmed throughout the wars of the Yugoslav succession and the
peace implementation process that followed. One is no change to the former
internal boundaries between Yugoslavia’s federal units. The other is no
acceptance of the logic of ethnic cleansing, or of the idea that multinational
states are unworkable.
These principles remain valid and important, not least
for Bosnia and Herzegovina, whose unity continues to be questioned. After the
International Court of Justice’s opinion in July on the legality of Kosovo’s
independence declaration, the Republika Srpska Prime Minister (now President),
Milorad Dodik, drew a parallel with the Serbian position in Bosnia.
And in Macedonia, although relations between the
majority and the Albanian minority have improved since the 2001 conflict, the
relationship of the latter to the Macedonian state is far from settled. And, if
we accept an ethnic redrawing of borders between Kosovo and Serbia, why not
elsewhere, in the Caucasus, or in Moldova? Some would welcome the precedent.
Since the break-up of Yugoslavia, the international
community has insisted that minority rights should be respected within existing
borders. Serbia and Kosovo are both multinational states. If Serbs in the north
cannot live in Kosovo, what place does that leave for the Serbs in the south?
And what about the Albanians who live in the north of Kosovo and ethnically
cleansed Albanians who would like to return there?
Then there are the practicalities. If Prishtina won’t
give up the north without compensation in southern Serbia, would Belgrade
accept such a swap? If it would, where would the new boundary be drawn? As when
discussing border changes anywhere in former Yugoslavia, there is no clean
ethnic boundary.
Of the three southern Serbian municipalities in
question, Presevo is almost entirely Albanian-inhabited, but Bujanovac and
Medvedja are ethnically mixed. Wherever the line would be drawn, some would be
left on the wrong side.
Such playing with maps does not provide solutions. It
just creates more disputes. By sanctioning partition, the problem of the north
would not be solved. More likely, it would ignite the tinderbox of frustration
felt by many Albanians, that nearly three years after independence their
country has yet to establish control over all its territory.
The premise that partition is the only possible
solution for the north of Kosovo is flawed. The main point is that the north’s
non-integration in Kosovo is only sustained by institutional and financial
support from Belgrade. That Serbia provides funding for Kosovo’s Serbs would be
fine, if its purpose was legitimate support for Serbian cultural, educational,
social and healthcare needs. But not when it is used as a political tool to
undermine Kosovo’s integration.
Belgrade’s obstructionist tactics include enfeebling
the EU’s rule of law mission in Kosovo, EULEX. Belgrade’s consent in December
2008 to EULEX’s deployment in the north followed EU pressure and its insistence
that if Serbia wanted to proceed with EU integration, it should not undermine
EULEX’s mission.
EULEX is now present in the north but is barely able
to carry out its mandate. The courts are scarcely functional. EULEX police can
do little more than sit in the police stations. Serbian interior ministry
police, in plain clothes, continue to operate. On the border, EULEX customs
officials are not able to collect duties.
Given Serbia’s EU aspirations, the European Union
holds leverage over Belgrade to insist that it stop its obstructionism in the
north. Following the ICJ’s opinion in July, that Kosovo’s independence
declaration did not violate international law, the EU put huge pressure on
Serbia, including high-level visits from key member states, to get it to agree
to technical talks with Kosovo.
Whether such contacts go ahead has been complicated by
the Council of Europe report naming Kosovo’s Prime Minister, Hashim Thaci, as
an organised crime boss. But questions about high-level crime and corruption in
Kosovo are separate from the issue of the country’s future relations with
Serbia.
EU pressure will need to be stepped up anew, both to
ensure the talks proceed, and to make sure they have meaningful content.
Enabling the courts, police and the customs service to function properly in the
north are key technical matters that should be addressed. Brussels should not
allow its mission to continue to be humiliated.
If Belgrade were pressurised into taking a more
accommodating approach, there is no reason why things should not change in the
north. In more than a decade since the UN mandate in Kosovo began, the pattern
has been one of gradual progress, with occasional setbacks, as things that had
once appeared impossible became possible.
Who would have thought three years ago that one would
see the level of Serb participation in Kosovo’s institutions in the south seen
today? That was possible because Belgrade did not have the means to control
Serbs in the south, whose daily reality is that they live among Albanians and
unavoidably come into contact with Kosovo’s authorities.
And in the north, while Kosovo institutions are
present only to a very limited extent, pragmatic accommodation by some Serbs
there is already greater than many in Belgrade realise. From the contacts
between Kosovo Serb police and their counterparts in the south, to the
acceptance by many northern municipal officials of Kosovo salaries, some
northern Serbs already balance between Serbia and Kosovo.
Such pragmatism should be encouraged. But the
prerequisite is that Belgrade cease shoring up the hard-line, obstructionist
holdovers from Slobodan Milosevic’s era who continue to hold sway there.
It is no time to despair about the integration of the
north into Kosovo, nor to look for the type of solution that has rightly been
rejected elsewhere in the Balkans. The EU has the means to secure a change of
policy from Belgrade. It is true that the EU is divided over Kosovo’s
independence but the five non-recognisers have all lined up behind the call for
technical talks. None opposes EULEX’s mission in the north. Spain and Greece
have taken a pragmatic line of late, making a more robust EU approach
realistic, if the same will that was evident following the ICJ opinion is
sustained.
Peter Palmer is a former Kosovo Project Director and
Balkans Project Director of the International Crisis Group.