Another election passes in Montenegro, and again things carry on much as before. The key political arena in Montenegro is not elections. That is not where interesting things happen. On the contrary, the result is always, has always been for the past 20 years, essentially the same. The Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and its allies win. Milo Djukanović remains in power, whether as president, as prime minister or, as in the past couple of years, from behind the scenes as DPS leader. No. The interest in politics in Montenegro is in the power struggles within the ruling coalition, such as the long tussle between Djukanović and his long-time key ally, Svetozar Marović over the former’s determination to advance his young protégé, Igor Lukšić, to the premiership. It is also in the scandals that emerge about alleged corruption involving the ruling circles, such as the charge that the government has illegally favoured Prva banka, which is controlled by the Djukanović family.
Elections are not interesting because the opposition never manages to present a credible challenge to the DPS. It harps on about corruption and organised crime, and about the lack of an independent judiciary. And few people doubt there is much truth in these accusations. But it does not make any difference. DPS voters turn out time after time. This time they and their allies did not manage to win an outright majority, but they will reach agreement with smaller parties and form the government nonetheless.
So what is wrong with the opposition in Montenegro? How does Djukanović manage to stay so dominant for so long? This time the great hope was supposed to be Miodrag Lekić, a former Montenegrin foreign minister, Yugoslav ambassador to Italy and ally of Slobodan Miloševic. And was it not predictable that Djukanović and his allies would scorn Lekić for his loyalty to Milošević? Was it not obvious that Lekić would present an easy target for those who portray the opposition as pro-Serb, opposed to independence, and disloyal to Montenegro?
Nebojša Medojević, leader of the Movement for Change (PzP), part of the two–party Democratic Front (DF) coalition fronted by Lekić, was surely correct in his analysis when the PzP was formed that the only hope for opponents of Djukanović after the country’s independence in 2006 was to set aside divisions and appeal to opponents of the DPS among supporters and opponents of independence. But the issue has remained critical in defining politics. By throwing in its lot with the New Serbian Democracy (NOVA), the PzP has put off many pro-independence voters. As a party tied to the population that identifies itself as Serb, NOVA is essentially a minority party. In an environment in which identification with independent Montenegro is still crucial, it is hard to see how an alliance including NOVA can appeal to many among the pro-independence majority. Neither can they be expected to win much support among the Bosniac, Albanian and Croat minorities, almost all of whose members supported independence from Serbia.
What of other parties? The Socialist People’s Party (SNP), founded by opponents in the DPS of Djukanović’s break with Milošević in the late 1990s, has never been an out-and-out Serb party like NOVA. Although it also opposed independence, it has made some efforts to put that issue behind it and present itself as a modern centre-left party. But its background remains a handicap, and it has never managed to persuade most voters of its competence to run the country. Despite losing out to the DF in the recent elections, perhaps it could bounce back. But even in that case, some suspect it might eventually be tempted into an alliance with the DPS. Perhaps the new Positive Montenegro (PCG) party, which picked up a few seats in these elections, might have a chance to fulfil the earlier ambition of Medojević, to play down the independence question and appeal to voters on all sides.
But for the moment, a substantial minority of the electorate remains devoted to its Serb identity and supports NOVA and other pro-Serb parties. As long as this division between pro- and anti-independence parties remains, the DPS has an easy ride. In order to challenge Djukanović, parties whose acceptance of independence is not in doubt need to establish a distinct identity, not tied to the pro-Serb opposition, but concentrating on presenting a credible alternative to DPS rule.
It is something like what the PzP initially aimed to do, although Medojević’s intense personal antipathy to Djukanović too often clouded his judgement. The obsession of most opposition parties, as well as civil-society opponents of the regime, with corruption allegations has persistently failed to win over most DPS supporters. After so many elections focusing on that one issue, it is time to recognise that, on its own, it is not going to win over loyal DPS voters. A successful opposition party will have to persuade voters it can run the country, that it has credible policies on the economy, health, education etc. This is a challenge, because the DPS-led coalition has many achievements to its name, notably in advancing the country’s EU ambitions. Tackling corruption and establishing an independent judiciary are vital, but those issues alone do not seem to be sufficient to persuade enough voters to ditch the DPS.
So what is the likelihood of the emergence of an opposition capable of seriously challenging the DPS? So long as the pro-Serb parties remain major players on the opposition scene, the DPS will probably manage to bat them aside as easily as it has up until now. The continued divisiveness of the independence issue is a gift to the DPS. This problem in Montenegro is peculiar among ex-Yugoslav states. No significant political factor in Croatia, Slovenia, Macedonia or Kosovo opposes independence (leaving aside dysfunctional Bosnia, which has yet to throw off international tutelage). But as long as the opposition in Montenegro is identified by the pro-independence majority with lack of commitment to the Montenegrin state, it is hard to see how they will be persuaded to vote out the party and the leader, Djukanović, that brought them their independent state.
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