In 2026 Ukraine has experienced new levels of pain and
hardship, subjected to ever more intense barrages of Russian drones and
missiles. At the same time, Ukrainian forces’ battlefield successes have renewed
hope that the country may yet be able to turn the tide against the Russian
aggressor. As in previous years, during winter Russia directed relentless
missile and drone attacks against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, designed to terrorise
and freeze Ukrainians and break their will to fight on. Each winter, there have
been fears that strikes on power plants would leave people without electricity and
heating during the coldest months. Last winter, the fears came true. Several
cities were left without heating for extended periods, with temperatures
dropping below minus 20 degrees. People posted photos on social media of ice-covered
walls inside their apartments. The effects were not evenly distributed. Some
suffered longer outages than others. The government and aid agencies expanded
the provision of so-called invincibility points, heated shelters where people
could warm themselves, charge their devices etc.
War damage in Kyiv
As Russia has continued to expand its missile and
drone strikes, Ukraine, deprived of the most effective interceptor missiles, has
been unable to defend its cities. Above all, America’s cutting off the supply
of Patriot missiles has enabled Russia to exploit Ukraine’s vulnerability. Ukraine’s
air defences are able to shoot down most of the slower moving drones and cruise
missiles. But without the Patriots, they are largely defenceless against the
fast-moving ballistic and hypersonic cruise missiles that Russia is deploying
in ever greater numbers. Staying in Kyiv in July, the night-time air raids that
Ukrainians have to endure with alarming regularity were of a different order
from those I had experienced in previous years. Even while feeling relatively
safe in a basement, the repeated loud bangs were unnerving.
Yet amid the misery of Russia’s war against Ukrainian
civilians, Ukraine has managed to regain the military initiative for the first
time since the failed offensive of 2023. Ukraine’s extensive use of drones has made
the frontline an almost impenetrable kill zone. Russia’s offensives have been slowed
to a crawl and made ever more costly in terms of the lives of its soldiers. While
Russia’s advances have barely moved forwards in 2026, in some areas Ukraine has
recovered territory. Meanwhile, since April 2026, Ukraine’s campaign of
mid-range drone strikes against Russian lines of communication, especially in southern
occupied Ukraine, have left Russian forces, notably in occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia
regions, increasingly isolated and short of supplies. Crimea, which relies on
the highway across southern Ukraine as well as the bridge across the Kerch
strait, has been particularly badly affected, with severe shortages of fuel
among other things. In the long run, such strikes against Russian logistics aim
to make the occupying force’s position in Crimea and southern Ukraine untenable.
In a further blow to Russia’s ability to sustain its
war, Ukraine’s long-range drone and missile strikes have targeted Russian oil
refineries and logistics centres deep inside the country. Such strikes directly
undermine Russia’s economic ability to sustain its war. They also have an
important psychological effect, bringing home to Russia’s people the price of
the war their president started. Ordinary Russians see the billowing smoke and flames
from destroyed oil refineries. They are inconvenienced by the disruption to air
transport caused by drone attacks, and by the strikes on warehouses of the
Wildberries company, Russia’s equivalent of Amazon. And inevitably, Russian
civilians are sometimes the victims of off-target drones or drones that have
been shot down by Russia’s air defences. Putin even had to slim down his 9 May World
War II victory parade in Moscow for fear of Ukrainian drone strikes. As the war
drags on, Russians have to pay an ever higher price for their president’s
hubris and miscalculation. Long frustrated by the unwillingness of Western
leaders to authorise long-range strikes against Russia, for fear of escalation,
Ukraine now produces its own long-range weapons, and no longer needs anyone’s
permission to strike back at the aggressor.

A recruitment poster in Kyiv: Together we are unbreakable
Yet amid these successes in bringing the war to its
enemy, Ukraine faces growing challenges on the home front, as war weariness and
divisions grow, threatening to undermine the successes its armed forces have
recently achieved. The country has for some time been struggling to recruit
enough soldiers. The stream of volunteers to defend the country in the first
year has long dried up, amid stories of chaos, incompetence, and sometimes
outright brutality in military units. There is strong resistance to the
military draft in Ukrainian society. Frequent stories and videos posted online
of draft dodgers, often vigorously supported by civilians, resisting recruitment
officers, have soured Ukrainians’ sentiments against sending their young men to
the army. The country was shocked by images from Lviv in early July, when a
large crowd confronted recruitment officers, battering and overturning their
vehicle. A report published in June by the Ukrainian media outlet Babel drew
attention to widespread abuses, brutality and inadequate medical attention in one
military unit, highlighting the excessive number of non-combat deaths. Such
stories only compound the resistance to the draft among young men and their
families.
The growing dissatisfaction was exacerbated by President
Zelensky’s decision in mid-July to replace the popular defence minister,
Mykhailo Fedorov. Thousands took to the streets in Kyiv and other cities to
protest against the decision. Following the example of protests against the
decision a year earlier to neuter two independent anti-corruption watchdogs by
placing them under the prosecutor-general, who is appointed by the president,
the mainly youthful protesters carried pieces of cardboard with their demands
scrawled on them. On that earlier occasion, following pressure also from the
European Union, Zelensky quickly reversed course. The protesters this time expected
a similar outcome, that pressure from the street would force a climbdown. The
experience of past mass demonstrations on Kyiv’s central Maidan square in 2004
and 2014 has inculcated a sense in part of Ukraine’s civil society that street
protesters have a special legitimacy before which governments should bow. It reflects
an enduring lack of trust in state institutions and elected officials among
much of the population. But for Zelensky to bow to pressure from the street a
second time risked fatally undermining his authority, and his ability to
prosecute the war.

Cardboard protests in Kyiv, July 2026
Fedorov had only been defence minister since January,
but had acquired a reputation for successfully promoting technological
solutions, above all drone warfare, that enabled the military to achieve
battlefield successes without heavy losses of soldiers. Even before his
appointment to the defence ministry, Fedorov had an impressive record as an
innovator and reformer. As minister of digital transformation, he steered the
introduction of the Diya mobile app and web portal which digitalised citizens’
and businesses’ interactions with the state. He brought the same zeal for digital
transformation to the defence ministry, introducing a digitised system of
procurement tracking, designed to increase efficiency, lower costs and tackle
corruption in defence procurement. He also sought to scale up drone production.
However, Fedorov’s reforms brought him into conflict
with the military high command, above all with the commander-in-chief,
Oleksandr Syrsky. Syrsky was an accomplished general. As commander of Ukraine’s
land forces, he had led the defence of Kyiv at the onset of Russia’s full-scale
invasion in 2022, and was behind the successful counteroffensive in Kharkiv
Region later that year, when Ukrainian forces regained swathes of territory in
the north-east of the country. However, Syrsky was unpopular among sections of
the media and civil society. Born in Russia, and having begun his military
career in the Soviet army, Syrsky was accused of being an old-style Soviet
commander, too ready to accept high rates of casualties among his troops,
notably in the battle for Bakhmut in 2022-2023. His detractors dubbed him the
“butcher” for his allegedly callous disregard for the lives of Ukrainian
soldiers. The criticisms were never fully justified. In the early stages of the
war, before drones had come into their own, Ukraine’s army suffered a
significant disadvantage in the supply of artillery shells. Battles such as
Bakhmut were brutal, but they slowed Russia’s advance. Syrsky was undoubtedly a
tough and demanding commander. The real question was whether Ukrainian society
was ready to accept the sacrifices in soldiers’ lives that the defence of their
country would unavoidably entail.
For many Ukrainians, tired of the war and reluctant to
send their young men to the army, Fedorov offered hope of victory with less
pain and sacrifice, victory through technology. It was a compelling narrative.
Contrary to the stereotype peddled by some in the media, Syrsky fully
appreciated the importance of drones in modern warfare. Indeed, it was under
his command, in June 2024, that the Unmanned Systems Forces were established as
a separate branch of the military, the first army in the world to establish a
separate, dedicated command for drone warfare. Ukraine’s military was highly
innovative well before Fedorov became defence minister. Where Syrsky and
Fedorov appear to have differed was that Syrsky and other senior commanders did
not believe that drone technology could substitute for conventional weaponry,
for artillery and infantry. The hope Fedorov held out of victory through
technology, without the sacrifices of soldiers, was almost certainly illusory.
Fedorov’s dismissal crystallised longstanding
dissatisfaction with the way the war was being fought, with Zelensky himself,
and above all with Syrsky. In public comments, Fedorov complained that Syrsky
had been blocking him at every turn. Zelensky explained his decision to replace
the defence minister saying that it had reached the point where Fedorov and
Syrsky were unable to work together, so that he had reluctantly to choose
between them. However, with thousands taking to the streets in Kyiv and other
cities, calling for Fedorov to be reinstated and for Syrsky to be replaced, Zelensky
bowed to the pressure and removed Syrsky, appointing General Mykhailo Drapatyi
in his place.
The protests did not stop, however. Thousands of young
people continued to come out every evening, persisting in their demand for
Fedorov’s reinstatement. Zelensky attempted to appease the protesters, offering
Fedorov other positions, including as deputy prime minister for military
innovation. However, Fedorov refused the offers, insisting that he would only
accept reinstatement as defence minister.
No doubt, Zelensky hoped that in time the protesters would
grow weary, and that their numbers would dwindle. Whether or not Zelensky manages
to weather this storm, the crisis has weakened him. The perception that
Zelensky is intolerant of anyone whose popularity threatened to eclipse his own
had already taken root before the Fedorov affair. Furthermore, corruption in his
inner circle has eroded support for the president, amid suspicions that the
uncovering of scandals among those close to him was behind the attempt to neutralise
the anti-corruption bodies. Zelensky is in a bind. During wartime, under
martial law, holding elections would be both impractical and forbidden by the
constitution. However, having already exceeded his original mandate as
president, Zelensky’s political legitimacy is inevitably diminished. Despite
the admiration and respect he still inspires abroad, mis-steps and
controversies such as the clumsy removal of Fedorov only diminish him further
inside the country. The greatest tragedy of all this would be if such divisions
in Ukrainian society would undermine the country’s ability to prosecute the war,
even as the military has been scoring some notable successes.